Kabul Mob Attack Could Be Early Indicator of State Collapse

“The condition of man… is a condition of war of everyone against everyone. (But) to escape from this perilous situation, human beings need the state that secures the right to life by securing peace.”

– Thomas Hobbs’ Leviathan quoted by Francis Fukuyama in The Origins of Political Order

In an act of mob terrorism, a mentally retarded woman named Farkhunda was mysteriously murdered on allegations of setting the Holy Koran on fire within an old mosque located in downtown Kabul.

The incident is well recorded as eyewitnesses have posted several video clips and photos of the mob attack on Facebook and Twitter. But, let’s get one fact straight: as of now, it’s unclear whether Farkhunda committed what she was accused of by the mob. I leave the “whys” and “hows” of the Farkhunda murder to the Kabul police. What strikes me the most is people’s reaction to this criminal incident.

The footage of the mob attack shocked most folks in Kabul. A large number of them reacted with anger, blaming attackers’ belief and religion as the main causes of lynching Farkhunda in daylight. Surely, the murder was committed under a religious pretext, which most of us believe is deviant and false.

But, is religion – or religious fanaticism – per se the root cause of the Farkhunda murder? No, it’s just a shallow excuse. The root cause happens to be elsewhere.

What killed Farkhunda is the failure of Afghanistan’s weakened state (the so-called National Unity Government) to fulfil its basic function; that’s, to deliver security for the public. It concerns me that the murder occurred in the presence of the police forces. It seemed as if people did not fear the police and were not afraid of state’s coercive power to punish them in spite of committing felonies such as murders.

Therefore, the real concern should not be people’s religiosity or extremist beliefs; it should be: how “dare” could a random group of people commit such a gruesome murder in front of the police forces? They dared to do so because of two reasons:

1) The election scandal has weakened the Afghan state in people’s eyes.

2) The failures of National Unity Government to announce the cabinet have made the Afghan state even more vulnerable and weaker.

The lynching of Farkhunda is alarming because it shows the state has almost lost its coercive power to deter people from committing crimes in the urban centers within arms reach of law enforcement agents. Imagine: how can it negotiate with and deter the Taliban?

It’s a tangible symptom of President Ghani’s and CEO Abdullah’s inabilities to govern Afghanistan. At least, let’s hope this tragedy serves as a security wake-up call for the state. I urge civil society activists and MPs to put pressure on the National Unity Government for ending internal disputes and finalising the cabinet as soon as possible.

It’s futile and a cliché to blame religion. It contributes little to avoid criminality in the future. Even though religion might have served as an excuse for the crime, it’s unrealistic to reform false religious premises in the short-run.

Thomas Hobbs points out that human nature is nasty and brutish, and humans are naturally at war with one another if not deterred by a strong state. Therefore, it’s vital to consider mob terrorism an early warning and indicator of a possible collapse of order in Afghanistan next year. And, of course, do something about it.